Thursday, February 21 Forecast Discussion

As we have mentioned all week, there is a threat for severe weather tonight, especially for East Mississippi. The greatest threat looks to materialize back in southwest Mississippi and into Louisiana. Tornado warnings have already been issued in parts of Texas and western Louisiana.

The question all week has been how far north will the warm and humid air make it, which will mark the boundary of severe weather. It appears that the moist air should make it to about I-20, and that will probably be all the further it makes it. Temperatures should increase through the evening as the warm front pushes northward.

In this warm sector, storms will be able to pull in ample energy from the surface and also air that will be rotating. If storms can remain discreet, they will most likely begin spinning. If storms form more of a squall line, we will see more of a damaging wind threat.

To be honest, the exact evolution will probably be a mix of the two. Our timing for severe weather will be between 6pm and midnight. Now, from what I have seen so far today, I do not expect this to become a major outbreak, but I will not be surprised if we see a couple storms become strong to severe with damaging winds and a tornado or two.

The best thing to do is be able to get any warnings that may be issued this evening. Of course, we will be live on the air as needed and updating Facebook, Twitter, and regularly.

Once the severe threat passes, rain will hang around for our Friday, although it looks like we won't see quite as much rain as thought earlier in the week as the front looks to drop a little further south.

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