Tuesday, April 9 Forecast Discussion

Another warm and muggy day as temperatures have again climbed into the 80s. Clouds are thicker today than yesterday, and that will keep temperatures from dropping too far tonight, so another warm night is in store for us.

Wednesday will be the calm before the storm as more warm and humid air continues to stream northward. Winds tomorrow could gust up to 30mph across the viewing area as our pressure gradient tightens ahead of our system we have been watching now for almost a week.

Storms will hold off for the Newscenter 11 viewing area until Thursday morning. Storms look to arrive between 5 and 7am for East Mississippi and by 9am for West Alabama. The early morning timing is a good thing as it will help to limit the severity of the storms. Right now, it looks more and more likely that a squall line, or something we call a QLCS (basically a bunch of supercells in a line) will be advancing through the area. The main threat with this system will be damaging winds and some hail, although if we have a QLCS or a broken squall line, tornadoes will be possible. The most dangerous part of the line looks to be clear of all of us around lunch time with the rain coming to an end by the evening hours.

The Storm Prediction Center still has all of us under a slight risk for Thursday. The good news is I do not believe we will see supercells develop ahead of the line, which would drastically increase our tornado threat, so this looks to be a squall line event with us watching for breaks in the line for tornadoes. Even with that said, winds could be booking up to about 80mph with higher gusts.

Once this system passes, we will get some cooler and drier air for Friday before we start to warm back up through the weekend and into next week with highs into the lower and middle 80s for Monday and Tuesday.


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