Tuesday Evening Weather Discussion

By: Stephen Bowers Email
By: Stephen Bowers Email

A deep low pressure wave sparked low pressure at the surface and threw a lot of moisture across the Deep South today. The result was as much as half an inch of rain in some spots as the surface low pressure system pushed a cold front through our area. High temperatures were recorded around midnight, and temperatures have been on a downward spiral since that time. The cold front has taken the rain away, and high pressure west of us is bringing a northerly wind flow around its eastern edge. That north to northwest wind flow extends vertically all the way up to the jet stream level around 40,000 feet high. That means the whole atmosphere will be cooling, and deep cold is likely to overtake our area. Since the clouds are expected to move away tonight, they will not be around to act like a blanket and prevent temperatures from hitting rock bottom. The only real saving grace we have tonight is the wind just above the ground is in the 10-15 mph range, and that will help to mix air down to the ground. That process also compresses air, which causes air to warm. That will keep us from dropping into the 20's, but temperatures will still be near freezing around sunrise Wednesday. Only the sun will warm us on Wednesday. The cold air mass is deep enough that the sun may only manage to bring our temperatures into the high 50's in the warm spots. Most of us may only hit 57-59. High pressure will take its place atop our area Wednesday afternoon and overnight, and that will allow the wind to go calm at all levels, which will allow temperatures to drop hard Wednesday night and Thursday morning into the 20's. That high pressure will shift to our east on Friday, and a warm wind up the western side of the high pressure will the sun warm temperatures a little more. Latest forecast moisture profiles suggest a noticeable increase in cloud cover for Friday and the weekend, but I am having a hard time seeing rain from this setup. Yesterday's forecasts were marginal for rain, at best, so today's forecast update will remove the rain from the end of the week. Slow warming will be the main forecast highlight this weekend and early next week.

TONIGHT: Evening clouds clearing. The low will be near 33. The wind will be from the north at 3-9 mph.

TOMORROW: Sunny. The high will be near 55. The wind will be from the north/northeast 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny. The morning low will be near 28. The afternoon high will be near 65.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. The morning low will be near 39. The afternoon high will be near 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. The morning low will be near 49. The afternoon high will be near 71.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. The morning low will be near 48. The afternoon high will be near 72.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. The morning low will be near 49. The afternoon high will be near 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. The morning low will be near 51. The afternoon high will be near 70.


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