Tuesday, February 19 Forecast Discussion

After a gorgeous mid February day with ample sunshine, clouds will start returning overnight and we should wake up mostly cloudy for our Wednesday. Clouds will hang with us through the day and continue to thicken up on Thursday ahead of our next storm system that looks to arrive late in the day.

The question about Thursday all deals with instability. As we get closer, models are starting to get a better handle on this system. Right now, it appears that rain will hold off until late in the day. Storms will most likely be ongoing to our west and south and move eastward towards us. It appears that south of Highway 84 at this point has the best chance to see severe weather, but if we can warm up more than expected at this point and increase our moisture, the severe weather threat will creep northward. Everything else is in place for a major severe weather event with damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, but if instability doesn't show up, it doesn't matter.

I am now starting to lean for the severe threat to stay to our south with a strong storm or two for us. The front will stall over us Friday and not leave until Saturday, meaning rain stays in the forecast. We could see a couple of inches of rain, which is not good news for our already saturated grounds and still swollen rivers.

Once this front departs, skies will clear and beautiful sunshine returns to start next week.


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