Tuesday, July 8 Forecast Discussion

Skies have been mostly sunny to partly cloudy today with temperatures already back above 90 degrees this afternoon. We will see temperatures drop off very slowly tonight thanks to warm and humid air currently in place and continued to be brought into the area with west and southwest winds. An area of two may see a storm this evening, but they will dissipate quickly after sunset.

A cold front to our north is slowly approaching the area and will be to our north to start our Wednesday. This could produce a shower or storm north of Interstate 20 towards sunrise, but I think the best timing for storms will be closer to the noon hour. Rain and storms will arrive from north to south. As storms make it to southern locations during the afternoon, these locations will have gotten warmer than the rest due to the delay in rain starting, and storms here could get on the strong side with gusty winds and small hail. A storm or two may get strong enough to be severe, but that is a very limited threat.

Rain looks to continue for Wednesday night into Thursday morning before things calm down behind the front as skies clear and high pressure returns. An isolated shower or storm is possible Friday before they turn just pop-up variety through the weekend. High pressure looks to be strong enough to limit most rain chances through the weekend as many of us should stay dry, but a storm or two may be able to develop.

Monday and Tuesday will see the high pressure over us begin to weaken just a bit as a trough moves in above the surface. While most of the energy will stay to our north, it looks to be close enough to at least provide a little lift for more isolated showers and storms to start next week.

Besides the rain timing for Wednesday, the other main question is highs this weekend. As our ridge builds in from the west, it will bring very warm air with it. Highs look to easily reach the middle to perhaps even upper 90s in some isolated locations. The problem is these patterns are sometimes overdone by the models and we do not reach as high as they forecast. For now, I am trending temperatures up for the weekend, but they may end up fluctuating a degree or two in either direction before the weekend is here.

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