Tuesday, May 13 Forecast Discussion

Clouds have been in abundance again today with a few showers and storms popping up this afternoon. These will once again fall apart after sunset with clouds remaining with us through the overnight. Wednesday will see our high temperature reached around the noon hour before rain showers and storms arrive with our cold front.

Storms look to develop across the area in the late morning into the early afternoon hours. Once the rain arrives, highs will have been reached and we will level off and drop through the rest of the day. Storms that fire initially and any that survive through the rain cooled air with the cold front will have the potential to have some gusty winds and small hail. Most storms should remain below severe criteria. Storms look to exit around sunset with rain coming to an end by very early Thursday morning at the latest.

After our front on Wednesday, there is an outside shot that we see a stray shower on Thursday and Friday as the upper level low departs. This solution is not heavily supported by the models and I believe that we will lack sufficient moisture in place for showers to develop, so I am leaving that out of the forecast for now, although a small rain chance may need to be added Thursday and Friday if the models continue to hint that we will see a stray shower and if enough moisture remains in place behind the front.

Daylight hours on Thursday will be dry with temperatures struggling back to 70. Northwest locations (such as Louisville, Philadelphia, and Carthage) may not break out of the upper 60s on Thursday. Thursday morning will begin a string of nights with lows in the 40s.

We don't look to return to the 80s until Saturday/Sunday as high pressure starts to rebuild over the area. Highs will race back into the mid and upper 80s as we start next week with us centered directly beneath the area of high pressure, keeping skies mostly clear and temperatures warming.

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