Computer models are already starting to be proven wrong. Temperatures are not warming up as much as expected at 6 A.M. this morning. Additionally, flurries continue to fall across the area with more and more wintry precip moving in, which didn’t show up but in a few models. I’m going to update my forecast for today. I now believe we will remain in the thirties for our afternoon highs. Smith, Jones, and Wayne Counties can expect light wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain/flurries changing over to just rain later this afternoon.
An elevated warm layer was expected to prevent any wintry weather from falling this afternoon, but a majority of the wintry weather falling has been forming below that warm layer. Viewing weather balloon soundings from many sights indicates that this warm layer is eroding away due to precipitation falling and evaporating into this warm layer. Hi-res models still are not picking up on any of this wintry weather.
We will continue to see the sky spitting flurries and maybe even some sleet as we head through the afternoon. Right now I’m not expect any travel problems from the wintry weather nor am I expecting any accumulations. It will change over to rain this afternoon as we warm up.
--Meteorologist Will Harkins