Tuesday, October 15 Forecast Discussion

Clouds have been on the increase through the afternoon, and will thicken up as we work through the evening and overnight hours. Temperatures today are struggling to make it to 80, and we will only crack the 80s area wide today. This is most likely the last day we will see 80 at least for the foreseeable future.

A cold front with plenty of rain is working through Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas at this hour. This front, however, has slowed its forward progress as it becomes aligned with the jet stream above it. Plenty of moisture is being brought in from the Pacific, and that moisture is being sent mostly north of the viewing area. Because of this, as the front arrives tomorrow late morning/early afternoon, I do not expect heavy amounts of rain, but rain showers will be plentiful through the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours into Thursday. A few lingering showers will be with us on Thursday, then we should be dry for Friday as the front stalls along the Gulf Coast.

Saturday will see winds turn around from the South and bring the aforementioned front back north across the area, causing more rain showers. The heaviest amounts and best chance of rain will be along and south of Highway 84, but it looks like just about all of us should see a scattered shower or two on Saturday. As of now, it looks like this front should clear out Saturday night and leave us dry for next week.

The big question in the long term forecast is the timing of the return of the front. If it comes back north sooner on Friday, that could mean a wet Friday evening. If it does not work as far north, we may be dry Saturday. It is does not exit on Saturday, we could see rain into next week. We will monitor this front closely into the weekend, but confidence is growing that only Saturday should be wet this weekend.


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