Tuesday, September 17 Forecast Discussion

A quiet day across East Mississippi and West Alabama even drier air has filtered in for the time being, rendering skies virtually cloud free and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. This low humidity will end tonight as winds shift to the south and east, bringing in warmer and more humid air overnight.

Even with the added humidity, it appears high pressure aloft will hold on a little stronger than originally thought, which means that rain chances should remain near 0 through Wednesday and Thursday. It is the end of the week and the weekend that bears watching and where forecast confidence drops off.

As we enter Friday, specifically Friday night, a cold front will be approaching from our northwest thanks to a trough working through the Great Lakes region. This cold front will generate some showers and thunderstorms along and just ahead of it. As of now, timing of the front ranges anywhere from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning arrival for us. For now, I am going to keep a 30% chance of rain in the forecast for Friday, but that may change.

Saturday is agreed upon by models at this point that it will be a rainy one as the cold front actually works through the area. Added to this could be an influx of tropical moisture from one of two things: 1) moisture pulled from a developing tropical system our direction or worse 2) a tropical cyclone heading our direction. Models are in too much of a disagreement to say which scenario is most likely, so this is something we are going to watch carefully. Added tropical moisture could mean up to 2 inches of rainfall on Saturday. If the tropical system develops and makes landfall along the coast, we could not only see that much rain plus more but also the threat of thunderstorms that could become severe. Needless to say, all eyes are on this weekend.

As of now, models clear the front and moisture by Sunday leaving us much cooler (and damper) to start next week with plentiful sunshine.


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