Wednesday Evening Weather Discussion

By: Stephen Bowers Email
By: Stephen Bowers Email

Cold air is flowing southward down the eastern flank of high pressure centered west of us over the Central and Southern Plains. The deep northwesterly wind flow aloft all the way up to about 50,000 feet is helping to keep the whole depth of the atmosphere cold. The setup changes very little tomorrow, so tomorrow's weather will be very much similar to Wednesday's weather. The wind will shift by Friday afternoon, and the sun's warming will be given a boost by a warm wind from the south at the ground and from the southwest aloft. Along with the warmth will be an increase in humidity throughout the atmosphere that will bring about a few clouds Friday afternoon and more clouds throughout the weekend as the humidity increases in the lower atmosphere. A mid-to-upper level low pressure trough will initiate low pressure development along Colorado's Rocky Mountain Front Range that will kick eastward through the Great Plains. Cold air will will rotate around the low pressure. The cold front at the leading edge of the cold air on the move will help to generate showers and thunderstorms around our area on Monday. Early indications are that the rainfall could be heavy for our area, and parts of our area could see an inch of rain or more. Forecasts of the jet stream pattern favor a heavy rain event and potentially severe weather if the instability can materialize. Right now forecasts suggest an overall stable environment, which means severe weather is unlikely. Forecast vertical wind profiles suggest, however, that IF severe thunderstorms can form they will likely spin fairly easily and bring the threat for a tornado or two. Again, this is IF the instability materializes, and right now the forecasts suggest it will not. That said, I am noticing an upward trend in the warmth in the lower part of the atmosphere, which suggests to me the instability may be under-forecasted by the models. It's a trend to watch, and we will certainly be doing that between now and Monday.

TONIGHT: Mainly clear. The low will be near 34. The wind will be from the north at 3-8 mph.

TOMORROW: Sunny. The high will be near 64. The wind will be from the north/northeast at 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. The morning low will be near 40. The afternoon high will be near 72.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. The morning low will be near 45. The afternoon high will be near 74.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. The morning low will be near 50. The afternoon high will be near 75.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. The morning low will be near 55. The afternoon high will be near 72.

TUESDAY: Sunny. The morning low will be near 42. The high will be near 61.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. The morning low will be near 43. The afternoon high will be near 65.


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