Wednesday Evening Weather Discussion

By: Stephen Bowers Email
By: Stephen Bowers Email

High pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere is nosing in from the west into our area. We are east of the ridge axis, so I suspect tonight will be about as cold as last night. The ridge axis moves east of us tomorrow afternoon, and some noticeable warming will take place up the western flank of that ridge since our deep layer wind flow will become more south to southwesterly within the clockwise wind flow of the high pressure cell. A low pressure trough is exiting the Northern Rockies this evening and will continue digging southward as it progresses toward the east. A surface reflection of this system will push a cold front through our area on Friday, and a brief moisture return along with the lift from the cold front should be enough to bring an increase in cloud cover for us on Friday. We may be able to squeeze a rain drop or two out of the clouds, but my thought is that we will stay dry with this cold front. Cold high pressure will funnel another wave of big cold over us this weekend. Sunday morning could see widespread high 20's for temperatures in our area. High pressure also means a sunny weekend for us. The high pressure is embedded within the jet stream, so it will be on the move. We will begin warming and the humidity should get a boost up the western side of the high. The jet stream will set up right over us, and an amplifying trough will bring about the development of a low pressure center at the surface. In the low's developing stages over Texas, humidity in our area will get a big boost and temperatures will increase noticeably going into late Monday and Tuesday. That low pressure will move eastward and bring with it periods of heavy rain along with some thunderstorms. The early indicators point at a low end severe weather risk that could include a tornado or two along with rainfall totals in excess of an inch in localized spots. That's a forecast we will be refining between now and Tuesday.

TONIGHT: Crystal clear. Still chilly. The low will be near 39. The wind will be from the north at less than 5 mph.

TOMORROW: Sunny with clouds beginning to move in late in the day. The high will be near 71. The wind will be light and variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance for brief light rain. The morning low will be near 47. The afternoon high will be near 68. The rain chance is 20%.

SATURDAY: Sunny. The morning low will be near 37. The afternoon high will be near 58.

SUNDAY: Sunny with clouds beginning to increase late. The morning low will be near 28. The afternoon high will be near 62.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a brief shower late in the day or overnight. The morning low will be near 41. The afternoon high will be near 66. The rain chance is 20%.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms. The morning low will be near 52. The afternoon high will be near 71. The rain chance is 60%.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. The morning low will be near 38. The afternoon high will be near 62.


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