Wednesday, February 19 Forecast Discussion

Another day of mostly cloudy skies and warm readings area wide. Temperatures as of 2pm have climbed into the mid and upper 70s for many locations. We will see another mild night tonight and still some areas of patchy fog around sunrise.

Thursday could see a record warm day area wide. The record at Key Field is 81 degrees set back in 1997, and at the rate we have been warming the last few days and the amount of warm air expected to be pumped in, we could break our high by a degree or two on Thursday. Strong southerly winds will be with us throughout the day, and because of that, a Wind Advisory is in effect for all Mississippi Counties except Wayne from 9am to 9pm Thursday. This warm and humid air mass will set the stage for strong to severe storms arriving after sunset from west to east.

Storms will be moving fairly quickly, so we are looking at about a 6 hour window from about 7pm to 1am of storms impacting the area. The main threat with this system continues to be damaging wind gusts as the line passes. Our tornado threat continues to diminish, although it is not zero, but I doubt the environment will be supportive for tornadoes as currently forecasted due to south-southwest winds at the surface and the overall convective mode being a squall line feature.

Once the front passes, humidity will drop substantially and we will clear skies out for Friday. Our only other rain chance in the next 7 days is Sunday with a system that will send some moisture northward from the Gulf. Otherwise, we stay near 70 until Monday when some colder air looks to arrive and could have our highs back into the 50s by Wednesday.


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