Wednesday, February 20 Forecast Discussion

Another great day today, although cooler, as high clouds over the area this morning broke up this afternoon. We will see clouds return as we head through the overnight and into tomorrow ahead of our system that will arrive Thursday evening.

This system is a very large and dynamic system with upwards of a foot of snow in Kansas and potential severe weather for us. The timing looks to be tomorrow evening when the rain arrives. Everything looks to be in place for severe weather except instability (as I have been mentioning the last couple of days). With the timing now looking certain for the evening hours, it appears that we should move enough warm and moist air to at least Interstate 20 for storms that do develop to become surface based (meaning their pull their energy from the surface and not a higher level of the atmosphere). If that happens, there is plenty of wind shear in the lower levels to produce tornadoes and damaging winds. The greatest threat at this point is along and south of I-20, but if we get more humid air further north, that could change, so make sure you keep with us for the latest updates.

The severe threat will end around midnight, so this is a very small severe weather window (about 6 hours) before rain takes over. Rain on Friday could be heavy with the I-59 corridor and southward seeing the greatest amounts of rain. Rain will end Saturday morning as the cold front finally makes it south of the viewing area, but this will return as a warm front on Monday with our next system, bringing more rain (but it looks like no storms) to the area for our Monday before we dry out again Tuesday and Wednesday.

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