The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has locations along and north of Highway 16 in Mississippi under a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon through the overnight. The main threats from storms will be damaging winds and hail. Storms have already fired in northwest Mississippi and more storms will develop this afternoon and evening for all of us. Storms will linger past sunset but should die around midnight tonight.
We repeat the same process on Thursday and Friday as more showers and storms are possible, some of which could become strong. The main catalyst for the weather today, an upper level low, will stay over top of us, but the best lift will move into central Alabama.
Throwing a wrench into the end of the week forecast is what happens with our tropical wave in the Gulf. We have been watching it for days, and it hasn't moved much, but the National Hurricane Center continues to increase its probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. A hurricane hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon to determine if there is a central area of low pressure. If there is, this thing could develop very quickly. Most models continue to send the wave into Florida near Tallahassee, however, this morning, a couple of models have moved the point of coming ashore to Pensacola, making it possible to see direct impacts (in the form of heavy rain) for West Alabama. We are watching this system closely.
Everything clears out either late Friday or early Saturday, allowing a dry weekend with potentially some below normal highs, depending on the track of our tropical wave. Temperatures quickly return to 90 by Sunday and will reach the mid 90s in the middle portion of next week.