Wednesday, October 2 Forecast Discussion

Clouds are again hanging tough across the area as a mid-level low pressure center lifts northward out of Arkansas into Missouri and out of the Southeast. A few sprinkles reached the ground in a couple locations this morning, and that will be the case through the afternoon as outside of a stray sprinkle we should remain dry.

Moisture will continue to stream into the area overnight which will set the stage for a little better shot at rain tomorrow, and that will only be an isolated shower at best. Again, I expect a lot of us to remain dry. Just about all of us should be dry on Friday before a cold front and tropical system approach.

We are watching two areas of interest into the weekend for a potentially soggy weekend. The first is a tropical wave in the western Caribbean that is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula. It has gotten much better organized today and a hurricane hunter is currently en route to the system. It could become a tropical depression today or tomorrow, and models are forecasting it to become a tropical storm, which if it does would be named Karen.

The question with our tropical system is does it develop and where does it go. Models disagree on the course it takes, which will be better resolved when/if a tropical depression forms. For now, anywhere from New Orleans to Tallahassee looks possible for a landfall. If the system does not develop, moisture will head in our direction would will mean heavier rainfall with our cold front.

The cold front looks to arrive on Saturday and exit on Sunday. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact arrive of the system on Saturday, and a portion of that will be determined by the tropical system. If the tropical system ends up to our east, we could escape with just a few raindrops, but if it moves closer to us, we could see a couple of inches of rain.

This is one of those forecasts that will only get a better picture as we get closer.

Once the front exits, next week looks comfortable and dry with highs a few degrees below 80 as we begin next week and highs returning to around 80 by next Wednesday.

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