Wednesday, October 30 Forecast Discussion

Clouds have been arriving again as we work through the late morning/early afternoon hours across the area. These clouds will thicken up through the overnight and into our Thursday. Cloud cover will limit high temperatures a bit, especially on Thursday, but the gusty winds ahead of the cold front will make sure to keep temperatures into the upper 70s with plenty of moisture in place.

The aforementioned rain for our Halloween looks to arrive starting around 4pm in western areas (Louisville, Carthage, Forest, Philadelphia), be in the heart of the viewing area (Meridian, DeKalb, Quitman, Cuba) by about 7pm, and then in West Alabama before midnight. As the storms move to the east and into West Alabama, they will be losing upper level support and should begin to weaken, so the severe threat is not as great for West Alabama.

The severe threats look to remain the same: damaging winds, flooding, and a few weak tornadoes. Winds just above the surface look to be moving around 50-70mph, which is enough for severe criteria, and they will be turning with height. The good thing for us is that instability will be low, so these storms will most likely not be discrete supercells which would increase our tornado threat, but these storms could begin to rotate fairly quickly and drop a tornado within a few minutes. Any tornadoes that form tomorrow will likely form and dissipate within 10-15 minutes, so any tornado warnings will need to be heeded as you may have little to no warning.

As for storm mode, it appears that what will most likely happen is a squall line (or a messy form of what should be a squall line) will arrive from the west and traverse the region. Any breaks in the line or bowing segments will increase the damaging wind potential and have a tornadic potential as well. As the sun sets and storms move into West Alabama, the best support will be to our north so the line will start to fall apart and lose its severe potential. If the line is slow moving, or there is ample rain behind the line, it will cause a flooding threat, and we may see a flash flood watch issued sometime in the morning as rainfall could be between 1-3 inches in the heavier rains.

Rain will exit the area as we head into the late morning hours on Friday (if not before) with skies clearing. Much cooler air will arrive for Saturday and Sunday as highs may not get out of the 60s on Sunday. Temperatures will start to rebound for next week before our next cold front arrives in the middle of the week.


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