Fri Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 29.7N 82.9W AT 22/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MOVING WEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 78W-81W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 78W-86W ACROSS NRN
FLORIDA...SRN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT WATERS IN THE W ATLC AND NE
GULF. OUTER RAIN BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 36W-42W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

A SMALL 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
12N53W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...SEE BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 60W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 56W-60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
FROM 10N-14N INCLUDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W S OF 15N MOVING
W NEAR 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 74W-85W.
AN UPPER INVERTED TROUGH IS LIKELY AIDING IN GENERATING THIS
ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
NICARAGUA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 14N30W 14N37W 12N41W 11N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N20W TO 10N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N45W TO 5N48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. FAY REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE GULF AS IT CROSSES THE NRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY INTO SAT...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE WRN GULF W OF 90W. A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N W OF
95W TO INLAND OVER FAR SRN TEXAS AND ERN MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY COVERS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A THIRD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE
GULF ANCHORED OVER WRN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CENTRAL
GULF REMAINS CLEAR AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE
N CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INDUCED INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W SEPARATING AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER WRN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE FAR SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
12N61W. THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W ARE
AIDING IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W OF
74W AND S OF 15N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NRN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TODAY BUT ARE CONTINUING TO USHER IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 73W. THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FAR W ATLC ARE THE OUTER CONVECTIVE
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AS FAY MOVES
FURTHER W TODAY INTO SAT. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S.
FAY COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS OVER THE NW ATLC TO 28N EAST OF T.S. FAY TO 65W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS
INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E OF BERMUDA AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N FROM 58W-72W. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N54W AND CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD
ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 58W-65W. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR 24N42W. AN
E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC E OF 50W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 32W AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS
THE ATLC E OF 50W GIVING THAT AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 55W
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR
42N29W.


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