Tropical Storm Fay: Forecast Discussion #29

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY
COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST
TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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