Fri Evening Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 29.8N 83.9W AT 23/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70
KM...SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM...EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE....SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN
OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO
30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH FAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA...S GEORGIA...AND S ALABAMA FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 79W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA
DUE TO A FEEDER BAND FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 79W-82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND IS
ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDINGS...AND THE USE OF HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS OVER W
AFRICA HELPED LOCATE THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
WAVE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 40W-42W.

A SMALL 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
11N56W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 61W S OF 16N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 59W-60W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS TO INCLUDE THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ANS THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG
84W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS
FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 79W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N25W 14N35W 10N62W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
36W-40W...AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S.FAY REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
TEXAS AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 95W-100W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 87W-89W...AND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN
80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N
MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS E TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 90W. OUTFLOW FROM T.S. FAY EXTENDS N TO
NORTH CAROLINA AND S TO THE NORTH BAHAMAS. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION WITH FAY AND MORE CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A
SMALL 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 21N82W. OTHERWISE FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND E
CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 16N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FAR W ATLC IS T.S. FAY WITH CONVECTION
W OF 78W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. MOSTLY EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N FROM W
AFRICA TO 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LOW IS FURTHER
E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
T.S. FAY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


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