Fri Evening East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

ROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N-17N IS LOCATED ALONG 111W IS
MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED JUST TO THE E OF
THE WAVE NEAR 16N106W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CONSISTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 101W-108W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURING OF THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 97W-111W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION EXTENDS ALONG 84W N
OF 5N IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRESENTLY SHOWING NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF
13N W OF 80W TO ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-8N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 11N95W 11N110W 10N120W
12N125W 10N134W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 108W-1114W AND 126W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

RATHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM FAR
WESTERN TEXAS NEAR 32N102W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NW
MEXICO NEAR 29N106W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CYCLONE TO
25N111W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-23N E OF 110W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS MOVING E 15 KT.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N125W TO 21N120W. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AND SE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SAME WINDS ARE HINDERING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED DESCRIBED ABOVE
FROM ORGANIZING TOO SOON. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED BY THESE WINDS WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH/SOUTH
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

W OF 120W...

THIS AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED BY BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 29N138W
TO 25N125W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY A LAYER OF
OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW N OF LINE 19N120W
THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE LOCATED NEAR 13N125W 1010 MB MOVING
W 5 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED CENTER CONSISTING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 122W-127W. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED WEAKENING MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN REFERENCE TO HIGH SEAS FORECAST...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS OF 8-10 FT ARE TO THE S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W-125W. THESE
SWELLS SHOULD DECAY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LATEST WAVEWATCH
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME OF THIS SWELL TRAIN IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL AND SE COASTS OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING.


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