Tropical Storm Fay: Mobile/Pensacola Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...

AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST...OR 85 MILES EAST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING NORTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-230715-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE WEST...AND NOW INCLUDES
ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY FLOODING
RAINS GENERATED BY FAY STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING
THROUGH SUNDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

MOBILE AND BALDWIN

THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND
OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...STORM INFORMATION...

...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...

AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST...OR 85 MILES EAST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING NORTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN TROPICAL CYCLONE
PREPARATIONS TODAY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE PROPERTY...ESPECIALLY
AT BEACH FRONT HOMES AND WITH BOATS. VESSELS GOING OFFSHORE OVER THE
GULF WATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR
DETAILS FOR THE INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT ONE-HALF TO ONE FOOT BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND FLOW THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND
SPEED...MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST COULD REACH
3 TO 4 FEET IN SOME AREAS. AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SATURDAY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDES WILL
EFFECT THE COASTAL SECTIONS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND FROM PENSACOLA TO PASCAGOULA
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM.

MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA
GULF COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

...WINDS...

FAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. BASED ON THIS
TRACK...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
TO NEAR 40 MPH SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS
THE CENTER OF FAY PASSES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD
FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT 35 TO
45 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE GULF WATERS OFF DESTIN BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF WATERS
SOUTH OF DESTIN...NAVARRE...AND PENSACOLA SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO
NEAR 8 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...FAY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THEY BEGIN...THE PERIODIC HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

SOME AREAS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS TO AROUND 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

THESE TYPE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS POSSIBLE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES TO NEAR PENSACOLA. THE RAIN
BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF FAY WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN
TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

ALZ051>060-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-230715-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY FLOODING
RAINS GENERATED BY FAY STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING
THROUGH SUNDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...CONECUH...CRENSHAW...
MONROE...WILCOX...CLARKE...WASHINGTON AND BUTLER COUNTIES.

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WAYNE...PERRY...GREENE...STONE AND GEORGE
COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...

...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...

AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST...OR 85 MILES EAST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING NORTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

...WINDS...

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF FAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO
35 MPH WILL OVERSPREAD THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES TO NEAR PENSACOLA. GUSTY WINDS
FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES THROUGH THE MOBILE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...FAY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THEY BEGIN...THE PERIODIC HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

SOME AREAS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS TO AROUND 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

THESE TYPE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS POSSIBLE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FAY MOVES TO NEAR PENSACOLA. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF FAY
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING.


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