Sun Afternoon Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N64.5W. IT HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. AT LEAST THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS IN TRINIDAD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC. A LITTLE MORE THAN
ONE INCH OF RAIN FELL IN CURACAO FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. AREAS
OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA TO 14.5N
BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF
20N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS IN
CLUSTERS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 72.5W...15N73W...AND 17N75W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
10 TO 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 19N...
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 9N29W...9N31W...AND 15N30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N54W 18N56W 14N56W
10N56W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 21.5N 55.0W ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN
47W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.

...THE ITCZ...
16N16W 13N28W 8N31W 5N40W 4N48W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...NEAR 32.0N 89.0W...OR
ABOUT 70 MILES/113 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
AND 25 MILES/40 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.
T.D. FAY IS MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 MPH/48 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS.
PLEASE ALSO PAY ATTENTION TO LOCAL NWS OFFICE WARNINGS/WATCHES/
BULLETINS ABOUT RAINFALL AND FLOODING FOR YOUR SPECIFIC AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 31N89W TO 26N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND 92W. OTHER ISOLATED AND COMPARATIVELY SMALLER SHOWERS ARE
IN THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURES ARE THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
12N64.5W...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS...AND A 70W/71W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N76W...MOVING SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 15N76W
CYCLONIC CENTER. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N91W IN WESTERN GUATEMALA.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N84W JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FLOW
THEN BECOMES CYCLONIC AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-
GUATEMALA TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA...
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 15N76W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N70W TO 26N70W
TO 20N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME DISSIPATING WITH
TIME...NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N52W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM
OF THE CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N33W. ONE BRANCH OF
A TROUGH EXTENDS BEYOND 32N29W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 23N35W AND 15N43W.


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