Sun Afternoon East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 110.0W AT 24/1500 UTC
MOVING NNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. JULIO IS LOCATED ON THE
W SIDE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N106W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ IS CENTERED NEAR 08N89W AND
IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N113W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY N. WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WINDS ARE 20 TO
25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT.

THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 12N126W...
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB. WITHIN 240 NM
SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WINDS ARE SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO
11 FT. WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WIND ARE NE 20 KT
AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N95W TO
13N117W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W AND 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 87W TO
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 108W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE LOCATED
N OF A LINE FROM 32N100W TO 20N120W TO 16N140W. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS AREA IS AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT W OF 130W AND A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N122W
THAT IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. TO THE S OF THE LINE MENTIONED
ABOVE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE EQUATOR
WITH RECENT SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE
25 TO 35 KT RANGE.

E OF 105W...
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE EASTERLY
AND MEASURE 20 TO 30 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT
WINDS.


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