Tropical Storm Julio: Forecast Discussion #6

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008

THE CENTER OF JULIO HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER OF JULIO PASSED VERY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 19Z. A COUPLE OF UNOFFICIAL
REPORTING STATIONS HAVE REPORTED MINIMUM PRESSURES BETWEEN 1000 AND
1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE ACCURACY OF THESE MEASUREMENTS IS UNKNOWN.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. JULIO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE GFS...
UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL PREDICT THAT JULIO WILL SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A SLOW DOWN IN 2-3 DAYS AS JULIO
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.

MOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 23.2N 110.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 24.4N 111.0W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 111.9W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 27.4N 112.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 28.4N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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