Mon AM Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH A 1006 MB
LOW ANALYZED NEAR 14N68W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM THE
NETHERLAND ANTILLES INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF 20N FROM 60W-73W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N21W. THIS
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WITH BROAD MID LEVEL TURNING. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 18N23W TO 16N17W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 17N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N32W TO 11N35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
1006 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 19N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRIER AIR
WITH ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N35W 8N62W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
17W-24W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-39W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D.FAY REMAINS INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI BUT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THROUGH
VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA COVERING THE N/CENTRAL GULF WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN MEXICO
TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS COVERING THE SE GULF. THIS SCENARIO IS KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
OTHERWISE...THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY
UPPER FLOW WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 81W FROM
PANAMA TO 17N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W
17N80W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA S OF
14N. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED
BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION...THUS ALL THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION
COVERING THE AREA FROM 60W-80W GENERATING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 68W WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY
FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY THE N PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM 19N58W TO
28N55W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
20N52W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N51W TO 23N55W. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 29N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS
N OF THE REGION.


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