Tropical Storm Julio: Forecast Discussion #9

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE CENTER OF JULIO REMAINS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING. AN 0934 UTC AMSRE-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT
THE CENTER WAS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LIKELY REMAINS OVER LAND. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN JULIO AS A TROPICAL
STORM GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/12. JULIO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
PREDICT A DECREASE IN JULIO'S FORWARD MOTION AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JULIO MAY CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SLOWS JULIO DOWN AND KEEPS THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

SINCE THE CENTER OF JULIO MAY MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
JULIO AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE
CENTER MAY BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
GLOBAL MODES PREDICT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
JULIO. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT JULIO COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE SHORT-TERM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND HAS ISSUED
A NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.8N 112.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 28.1N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 29.1N 113.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.7N 113.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 30.1N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z 30.3N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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