Mon Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AT 25/1500 UTC NEAR 15.5N 70.1W. THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV AT 25/1800 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV AT 25/1800 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N 70.5W... OR ABOUT
225 MILES/365 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF
THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N31W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N34W TO 10N36W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N
TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW
PRESSURE/THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA...ROUGHLY
ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 20N. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 21W AND 27.5W.

...THE ITCZ...
12N17W 8N30W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32.3N
89.4W...OR ABOUT 50 MILES/85 KM EAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI...
AND 165 MILES/265 KM NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. FAY IS
MOVING NORTHWEST 3 MPH. THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES THAT THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL BE CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST...AND INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE ON
TUESDAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH/
40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1003 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS STILL ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 92W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG
THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N IN MEXICO TO 27N IN
SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV.
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH GUSTAV COVERS THE AREA
FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
67W AND 72W. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SOUTH
OF 17N ALONG 83W AT THE COAST/EASTERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
82W AND 86W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. A SECOND
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N67W TO A 27N67W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N69W. A FIRST SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N58W 22N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 29N58W 26N61W 23N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS FROM 23N BEYOND BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N53W 20N53W 22N56W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND
52W...AND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N
TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM OF THE
CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N35W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 21N36W TO 17N40W AND 10N48W.


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