Wed Afternoon East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 79W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
MAKER AT THE MOMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
N OF 12N...TRIGGERED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN EXTENSIVE
WLY FLOW W OF THE AXIS AND ELY TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 14N98W TO 13N117W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
THE REMNANTS OF JULIO HAVE FIZZLED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
...THOUGH SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS AFFECTING NW
MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-23N E OF 109W ENHANCED BY
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MEXICO.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE DEVOID OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS WIDESPREAD DRY AIR LIES OVER THE REGION
...ESPECIALLY ON THE N AND W PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N114W. AT THE SFC...A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N142W CONTROLS THE PATTERN PRODUCING MODERATE NE
TRADES. HOWEVER...N WINDS ARE TO GALE FORCE N OF THE ZONE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE DESERT SW CONUS. WHILE THE CORE
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE N OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED N SWELL IS
PROPAGATING N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W.

S OF 20N...
SWIFT ELY MID AND UPPER FLOW LIES OVER THE REGION E OF 115W ON
THE S PERIPHERY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST W
OF THE S PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW IS
ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
TROPICS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W. A PAIR OF WEAK SFC LOWS
ARE ANALYZED NEAR OR EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND
122W. THESE LOWS ARE LIKELY ENHANCING SOME TSTM ACTIVITY BUT IT
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. THE SW SWELL EVENT OF 16-18
SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO AND
SHOULD SUBSIDE TOMORROW AND FRI.


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