Tropical Storm Gustav: Forecast Discussion #13

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV REFORMS TO THE SOUTH AND IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...270
KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN CUBA...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.


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