Wed Morning East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE NORBERT AT 16.1N 110.0W AT 08/0900 UTC OR 415 NM S OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND 100 WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/
WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORBERT HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING AND HAS NOW BECOME THE
SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SOLID CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND TWO HALF-FORMED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE PICTURES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
DEEPEST AND COLDEST CLOUDS ARE WEIGHTED ON THE SOUTH AND WEST
SIDES OF THE HURRICANE...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF A 10 KT NE TO E
SHEAR. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE WNW TO NW AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW AND
TURN N AND THEN NE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N89W HAS BEEN DRIFTING W
TO NW DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AFTER MOVING ERRATICALLY ON A
MOSTLY E TO NE PATH THE LAST DAY OR TWO. SATELLITE PICTURES
SUGGEST THAT...ALTHOUGH STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS
TAKEN ON SOME ADDITIONAL CHARACTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN THE STRONG
SHEARING CONDITIONS PRESENT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN 36 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH ADDITIONAL DEEP
CONVECTION ALSO FORMING IN WHAT MIGHT BE A PRIMITIVE BAND OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
SHOULD HEAD ON A SLOW BUT MORE DEFINITE WNW TO NW COURSE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N96W TO 16N110W TO 11N115W TO
12N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND
96W. SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE...NOW A SWIRL OF NOTHING MORE
THAN LOW CLOUDS...ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWEST IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
NEAR 17N126W. EVEN THOUGH WHAT IS LEFT OF MARIE CONTINUES TO
WIND DOWN...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO
POSSIBLY 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW QUADRANT. THESE
WINDS ARE BEING MAINTAINED BY THE STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL TO THE NW OVER THE MID-LATITUDE NE PACIFIC. WITH NO
CONVECTION LEFT...MARIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TODAY AND
DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN AN
EQUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY
GALES TO BLOW OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KT FORECAST TO COVER MOST OF THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE
FROM 30N119W TO 17N140W BY FRI MORNING. SEAS OF 11 TO 19 FT IN N
TO NE SWELL SHOULD REACH INTO THE WATERS GENERALLY N OF 26N W OF
120W. IN ADDITION...SE TO S SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE
NORBERT WILL INTERSECT SOME OF THE NORTHERLY SWELL COMING OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC...CAUSING VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS WITHIN
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.


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