Hurricane Norbert: Discussion #18

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

NORBERT HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY
DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALES AND
OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 100 KT. THIS MAKES NORBERT A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND THE WARM SSTS...NORBERT
COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
RESULTING IN WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...NORBERT COULD APPROACH BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A CATEGORY TWO OR THREE HURRICANE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
IN A DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS
A BROAD MID LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND ADJACENT PACIFIC. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS
SOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IS BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF EITHER DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OR KEEP IT
NEARLY STATIONARY VERY CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS NORBERT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN
TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WHILE IT IS STILL PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY
HAVE ON BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTERESTS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 16.1N 110.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 16.7N 111.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 17.5N 112.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 113.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/0600Z 31.5N 107.5W 20 KT...INLAND


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