Tropical Storm Odile: Discussion #3

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES
DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 35 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND THE SHIPS ANALYSIS SUGGEST INCREASING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AROUND THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. IN
FACT...THE UKMET SHOWS THE SYSTEM'S SURFACE CIRCULATION DECOUPLING
FROM THE MID-LEVEL REFLECTION AND MOVING INLAND NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL/SHIPS
SCENARIO WITH STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 3...THEN A WEAKENING
THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. ODILE...OH-DEAL...IS MOVING WITHIN
THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING THE TROPICAL STORM
TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST. A RATHER LARGE DEVIATION IN FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO
BE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
STALLING NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE HWRF RACING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...AND A MODEL CLUSTER OF SIMILAR SPEEDS THAT
CONSISTS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE ECMWF. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS JUST
A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 12.7N 93.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 13.2N 94.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 13.7N 95.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 14.2N 97.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 15.0N 98.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W 50 KT


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