Thu Morning East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 09/0900 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W
OR ABOUT 355 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
SURFACE PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT NORBERT IS BEGINNING TO LEAVE THE GREATER THAN 28C
WATER TEMPERATURES WHICH IT HAS ENJOYED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WHICH ALLOWED IT TO ACQUIRE MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HURRICANE JUST PAST PEAK INTENSITY
...WITH SOME DEFINITE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES. CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES SUGGEST AROUND 10 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...
WHICH COMPARES WELL TO THE STRONG WEIGHTING OF CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DEEP TROUGH WITH AN
EMBEDDED CLOSE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY AND FRI...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE MAIN STEERING FLOW TO
TURN SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A
RESULT...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AND LIKELY REACH THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SAT MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AT 09/0900 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 93.0W
OR ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ODILE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED SURFACE
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES...WITH A COMBINATION OF
MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM. WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NE TO E SHEAR EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS ODILE
MOVES PARALLEL BUT JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...THERE EXISTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/
WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 12N93W TO 08N98W TO 08N120W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM N AND 90 NM
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUE TO DRIFT ALONG
IN THE TRADE FLOW OF THE OPEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS NEAR
17N126W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED NE WINDS OF 20 KT
WITHIN 270 NM OF THE NW QUADRANT AND AN 0322 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS LESS
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...TO THE EXTENT THAT IT
SURVIVES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND ABNORMALLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR STRONGER WINDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SHIP
REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION...NOAA WAVEWATCH III SUGGESTS SEAS OF
8 TO 9 FT IN MOSTLY NW SWELL.

OTHERWISE...AS AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE RAPID EXPULSION OF NORBERT INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL INTRODUCE VERY STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AS A
RESULT...N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND FRI...PUSHING LONG PERIOD N TO NE
SWELL WELL S INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALREADY...AN 0320 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY
FLOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W AND A SHIP DHBN JUST NORTH
OF THE FAR NW WATERS WAS REPORTING 16 FT SEAS. AT A MAXIMUM...
WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BUILD UP TO 19 FT OVER THE FAR NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

FINALLY...A NUMBER OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...A S TO SW CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP AND CAUSE
SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.


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