Thu Morning Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
CENTERED WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL LOW IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
35W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH
THE ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N54W TO 11N58W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH
THE AN UPPER LOW. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 10N38W 8N45W
11N56W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR
15N38W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 35W-39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N38W TO
6N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE US EXTENDING INTO THE N
GULF WATERS N OF 26W W OF OF 82W WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA/GEORGIA. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ALONG
28N85W TO 24N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 23N96W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE NW OF THE FRONT...THUS CLEAR
SKIES OVER THAT AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW GULF ANCHORED
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE MOIST
TROPICAL AIR ALL READY IN PLACE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W
COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W
ATLC DIPS S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF CENTRAL NICARAGUA EXTENDING AN AXIS E ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO JUST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S
OF14N W OF 80W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF THE FLORIDA
COAST COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 73W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 76W-80W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN
50W-73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N48W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N63W TO 24N71W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER SE GEORGIA TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 57W AND THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE COLD
FRONT NEAR 25N54W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N56W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N AND FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 52W-57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N41W COVERING THE AREA S OF 28N INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N BETWEEN 33W-48W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 24W WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY OVER W AFRICA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA
ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 12N S OF 15N TO NEAR 32W. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W.


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