Tropical Storm Odile: Discussion #7

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

A LARGE BURST OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS WEAKEN ODILE DOWN TO A REMNANT
LOW OR DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY WITHIN 48 HOURS...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE EXCESSIVE SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND AFTERWARD FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN DEPICTED
BY THE GFS-BASED BAMM AND BAMD MODELS.

ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS AND OVER WARM SSTS OF 29C OR HIGHER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT HURRICANE
NORBERT HAS LEFT A TRAIL OF COLD UPWELLED WATER BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14N
AND 16N LATITUDE TO THE WEST OF 100W LONGITUDE. IF ODILE REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THAT COOLER WATER...BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO NOT
INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THEN THE CYCLONE
COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS
...AND THEN CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 14.2N 96.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 14.8N 97.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.6N 99.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.4N 101.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.3N 103.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 18.6N 105.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 19.7N 107.4W 60 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W 55 KT


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