Fri AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 0900 UTC HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 113.4W...OR
ABOUT 315 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
NORBERT IS MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 975 MB. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE N THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THEN TO THE NE INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 48
HOURS. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AT 0900 UTC TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED 14.2N 96.7W...OR
ABOUT 105 NM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 285 NM SE OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING WNW AT 10 KT...AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH EARLIER NEXT WEEK AS IT PARALLELS
THE MEXICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 MB.
ODILE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A 65 KT HURRICANE SUN NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS
ODILE MOVES PAST COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N78W 11N100W 9N115W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 110 NM S OF AXIS FROM
105W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N132W TO 14N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 118W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER HURRICANE NORBERT CENTERED NEAR
14N114W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM EXTEND FROM 30N119W
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SW TEXAS. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT N OF AROUND 20N W OF 120W...WITH WINDS 20-30 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 16 FT. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO
N OF 15N W OF 120W.


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