Fri AM Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD
LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 29W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS
AHEAD OF THE AXIS TO 35W FROM 7N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITH IN
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO 64W SOUTH OF
15N...AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A
SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND SHOWS THE EXPECTED
NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING OF A WAVE
OCCURRED BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0200 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N25W 9N35W 10N45W 13N58W.IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 45W-48W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE CENTERED NEAR 31N84W. AS OF 03Z...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N84W TO 24N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 24N93W AND TURNS SW-WARD TO 21N96W. MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE W
ATLC...LEAVING A DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. ONLY SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS COVER
THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS RIDGING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 78W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE /
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC ENTERS THE
N/CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ARE MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN MOIST AIR SURROUNDING THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 14N. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NE TO E WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE W ATLC. AS OF 03Z...THIS STATIONARY FRONT WAS
ANALYZED ALONG 31N78W 27N76W TO 24N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. A CLUSTER
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER
FLORIDA HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST FROM 28N-30N W OF 78W. A SECOND
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N46W AND STRETCHES
SW-WARD ALONG 27N51W TO 24N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER AFRICA HAS
GENERATED INCREASED WINDS OF 25-30 KTS N OF 22N AND E OF 60W. A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N65W IS GENERATING A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 64W-66W. THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
TRANSPORTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN
46W-54W.


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