Tropical Storm Odile: Discussion #12

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER OF ODILE WITHIN THIS LARGE
BUT SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS DISTORTED BY SHEAR AND BY THE
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND THIS POSITION
MATCHES WITH EXTRAPOLATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
WITH NO OTHER DATA AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
55 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS ODILE TO
HURRICANE STATUS BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SOPHISTICATED
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING SHEAR...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER
WILL CONTINUE OVER WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
ODILE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS WESTWARD...IT WILL PROBABLY FORCE ODILE ON A MORE WEST AND
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS MY PREDECESSOR. HOWEVER...THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
DIFLUENT. HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE ODILE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING IT INLAND IN A DAY OR SO AND THE OTHER HALF
TURNED THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. THEY ALL HAVE ONE THING IN
COMMON...THEY BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE RATHER QUICKLY.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD ODILE
SO WE WILL KNOW MORE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.2N 101.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 103.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 18.1N 104.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 105.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.3N 106.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W 50 KT


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