Hurricane Norbert: Advisory #31

HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...NORBERT SOON TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...WEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA...
BUT NORBERT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.


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