Sun AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT IS INLAND OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO
NEAR 29.6N 106.2W...OR ABOUT 65 MILES N OF CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...AT
1500 UTC AND IS MOVING NE AT 21 KT. NORBERT HAS WEAKENED WITH
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT...AND EXPECTED TO
FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE LATE TODAY NEAR 33.0N
103.8W. BUT NORBERT COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TODAY. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT COULD PRODUCE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 105.5W AT 1500
UTC AND IS MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ODILE REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...ODILE COULD STILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 7N ALONG 92W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN OVER THE PAC
WATERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 07N91W
AND CONTINUES FROM THE WAVE AXIS TO 09N110W TO 09N120W TO
07N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 95W AND
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 08N108W TO 09N117W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N145W.
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER THE SE QUADRANT WITH THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE SPREADING E OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N W OF
133W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS NEAR
25N99W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG
20N104W TO A CREST IS THE TROPICAL PAC NEAR 10N133W. NORBERT IS
MOVING NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WITH DEBRIS
MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CONUS. ODILE IS RIGHT
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH SOME THE DEBRIS MOISTURE
SPREADING W OF THE PAC WATERS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND
109W. EXCEPT AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY W
OF A LINE FROM 23N105W TO 10N130W. THE TROPICAL E PAC E OF 120W
IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT SPREADING ITCZ DEBRIS
MOISTURE S TO THE EQUATOR.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N135W TO 08N120W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 17N W OF
120W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N122W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW.


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