Tues AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 12N ALONG 98W MOVING W 10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 11N87W 12N95W 9N110W TO 11N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS
FROM 117W TI 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 31N132W WITH
TROUGH FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 20N130W THEN SW TO 15N135W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION ARES W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 23N112W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NW
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 32N122W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS LOCATED NEAR 19N97W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 12N106W.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED AND THE ELY
WINDS HAVE DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER SOME
9-10 FT NW SWELLS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N87W. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG
THE ITCZ NEAR 11N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF THE LOW CENTER.


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