Wed AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 100W-105W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N83W 10N95W 8N110W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS FROM 84W-88W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 19N140W WITH RIDGE FROM THE
CIRCULATION ALONG 140W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N131W TO 20N126W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. AN
ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 21N108W TO 18N120W. SCATTERED CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED IN
THE DIFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N99W.

SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N139W TO 17N111W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 120W. A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N125W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.


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