Mon AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N79W TO 11N86W TO 07N100W TO
08N107W TO 07140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST N OF 04N.

...DISCUSSION...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW GALE FORCW LATER TODAY
BUT REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE INTO TUE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INDUCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 11N95W DRIFTS WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IT CURRENTLY
LIES UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE...HENCE ONLY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH VERY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.

TO THE S...EXPECT STRONG EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION S OF 07N W OF 95W DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED FROM 30N115W TOWARD
15N140W WILL CUT OFF A WEAK LOW OVER NW WATERS AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD INTO MEXICO TODAY. THE MEAN
TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL BE REINFORCED BY ENERGY TRAVERSING
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA/BAJA COAST
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BETWEEN THE CUT OFF OVER NW WATERS AND THE MEAN TROUGH TUE/WED.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF 12N W OF 114W...WITH
WINDS MOST LIKELY TO EXCEED 20 KT IN THE SW CORNER OF THIS
REGION INTO TUE.


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