Monday East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 10N82W TO 05N91W TO 05N99W TO 10N110W TO 07N120W TO
09N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM POLO CENTER AT 8.8N 113.2W OR ABOUT 100 NM S-SW
OF SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT CYCLONE AS SMALL AND TIGHT INNER CORE STRUCTURE
WITH TIGHT BANDING FEATURES COILED AROUND CENTER...HOWEVER DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND CENTER DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY LAST SIX HRS.

LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS POLO TO STRENGTHEN UNDER LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER NEXT 48 HRS...WHILE MOVING ON W-NW TO NW
COURSE. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 10N118W TO
01N120W SPLITS RIDGE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE STRETCH ALONG 10N-12N
THROUGHOUT ENTIRE E PAC. VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 12N EXCEPT
SWATH OF MOISTURE ENCROACHING WITHIN 180 NM OF 90 KT JET CORE
FROM 15N140W TO 23N126W.

RIDGE COMPRISED OF ONE BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 12N127W AND SECOND
SMALLER ONE AT 09N105W. GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CAUSED BY
SADDLE BETWEEN TROUGH AND E ANTICYCLONE WAS ENHANCING DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM POLO...WHICH HAS LOST PLENTY OF
ITS CLOUDS IN LAST SIX HOURS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 26N131W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO
13N105W TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AGAINST CALIFORNIA COAST
INCLUDING NRN SECTIONS OF BAJA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG NW
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT REMAIN RESTRICTED N
OF 27N.

ELSEWHERE...WELL-DEFINED BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SPREAD
THROUGHOUT E PAC TODAY THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT ENDED EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL LINGER FOR NEXT 24-36 HRS. SWELLS
FROM LONG-LIVED EPISODE SPREADING WELL W TO 110W FROM 8N-13N.
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE THROUGH WED.


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