Monday Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
IN THE W CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR
20N78W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. BROAD MID LEVEL TURNING IS OBSERVED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA WITHIN
200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N7W 4N14W 6N28W 2N44W 3N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM ITCZ TO
10N BETWEEN 25W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 10W-31W AND WITHIN
120/150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO E TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE ENTIRE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N61W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NE TO 25N73W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
26N63W TO 32N48W...AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME
LOW NW T0 31N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 71W-75W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W ATLC FROM 22N-33N BETWEEN 64W AMD THE SURFACE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N50W NE TO 32N44W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N27W TO 28N35W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SEPARATES THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N42W SSW TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N45W TO 11N49W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDS ALONG 12N FROM AFRICA TO 38W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 26W-33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG 35W FROM 11N-16N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 13N.


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