Tue AM Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
IN THE W CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N81W TO 15N79W TO 18N78W.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH...COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 77W-82W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF
11N W OF 80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 7N22W 4N35W 3N43W 3N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-23W...
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 14N BETWEEN 25W-39W...
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF...WHERE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS INTO
THE GULF...FURTHER ENHANCING THE SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W...WITH
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE W OF THE
HIGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND A SURFACE LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN...ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
FARTHER TO THE E...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SW OF THE UPPER HIGH
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
72W-75W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. ALSO...
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE E CONUS IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC. ALSO...A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 25N74W...WHERE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT INTERSECTS BOTH A STATIONARY FRONT AND A COLD
FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N74W TO 23N66W TO
19N60W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N74W TO 20N75W.
ADDITIONALLY...TO THE NW OF THE LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N76W TO 32N78W AND EXTENDS NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO
THE S OF THE LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N76W TO
21N77W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTS...TROUGHS...AND LOW...
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
AND N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 61W-73W...WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 72W-77W. FARTHER TO THE
E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM 4N47W TO 16N42W TO 32N43W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 17N47W TO
14N47W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 41W-47W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO
31N44W...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N44W TO NE OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN
35W-44W. ALSO...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N16W TO
20N23W TO 30N23W...WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF
THE RIDGE AXIS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ AXIS.


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