Wed AM Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW E OF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO 19N82W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 73W-84W. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
NORTH.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 7N32W 7N38W 4N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 19W-30W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 34W-38W...WHICH IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF. OVER
THE NW GULF...DEEP SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING E OF AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS. ADDITIONALLY...
SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER W
ALABAMA. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N74W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
W OF THE HIGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND A
SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN...ARE
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC. THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-64W...WHICH ARE
AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE E CONUS IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC. ALSO...A SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT INTERSECTS BOTH A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 32N72W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N72W TO NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N72W TO 30N67W TO 28N65W...WITH SE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N72W TO 27N72W TO
22N75W...WITH NW TO N WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF 26N W OF THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTS. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS CIRCULATING
ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N74W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AFFECTING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 4N46W TO 18N38W TO 32N43W
AND EXTENDS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
ACCOMPANIED BY TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 12N49W TO 16N48W TO 20N46W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 39W-47W. THE SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N44W TO 28N42W TO 30N40W...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 23N BETWEEN 34W-38W...WHICH IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N42W
TO 32N40W AND EXTENDS NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALSO...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
45W-53W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
ALSO...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
17N16W TO 25N22W TO 32N26W AND EXTENDS NW OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 25W-30W


WTOK-TV 815 23rd Ave Meridian, Ms. 39301 Phone: (601) 693-1441
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 33890344 - wtok.com/a?a=33890344
Gray Television, Inc.