Thu AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...
10N85W TO 07N91W TO 06N101W TO 10N123W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W TO 118W.
REMNANTS OF POLO ALONG ITCZ NEAR 10N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
MAIN ISSUE IS WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TO THE NORTH. SHIP WTDK OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF
REPORTED WINDS TO 40 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING...LIKELY DUE TO THE
FRONT PUSHING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH INTO FRI...WITH
20 TO 30 KT WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE GULF.

ELSEWHERE N OF 20N...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130W BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH FRI...TO
THE NORTH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS OFF NEAR 24N125W.
THIS MAINTAINS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND WESTERN U.S. AN ASSOCIATED 1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N130W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THIS IS
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NORTHERLY 8 TO 10 FT SWELL...THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 20N...
MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM 20N125W TO 12N118W IS SUPPORTING A WEAK
1012 MB SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF POLO...ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR
10N124W. QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF 20 KT TRADES
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. CONVECTION
REMAINS MODEST ALONG MOST ALL OF THE ITCZ DUE TO MODEST
CONVERGENT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND RELATIVELY LOW DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. LOOKING AHEAD IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT BY SAT
DUE TO DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.


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