Tropical Storm Paloma: Discussion #3

TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
46 KT ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1000 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH
35-KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.

UP TO 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. THE HWRF FORECASTS A
PEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
FORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL. AFTER 72 HR...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
SHEAR APART VERTICALLY. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6. PALOMA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS
LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT REACHES 18N IN ABOUT 48 HR. THIS FLOW SHOULD
CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS. FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMD
FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...
WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS
SHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...
SHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS. SINCE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...
THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

IF THE CURRENT MOTION AND STRUCTURE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IF THE
STORM MAKES A LEFT TURN OR GROWS IN SIZE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.1N 82.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 15.8N 82.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 16.6N 82.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 17.5N 83.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.5N 82.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 81.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 65 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER


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