Tropical Storm Paloma: Discussion #5

TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB
WINDS OF 61 KT...SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT...AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS. RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE. OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL STILL
FORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7. DISTANT
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD...
TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS...INCLUDING
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF...ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA.
SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED
AND IS STRONGER...THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY
SOLUTION.

NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS
IN A FEW HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.3N 81.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.2N 81.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.3N 82.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 81.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.0N 80.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 10/1800Z 23.5N 75.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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